SHORT STORY with the essence of the television series LOST and Essay

SHORT STORY with the essence of the television series LOST and MANIPULATION - Essay Example Caroline was busy admiring the 4-karat diamond on her freshly manicured ring finger when Brett passed her a glass. The couples were heading towards their first vacation on the Voss Islands (the most talked about getaway spot at their club) Connor and Kaleigh, living together for 9 months, were intrigued when newlyweds Brett and Caroline moved into the new mansion next door. They never really had 'friends' within the gated community, just a few acquaintances, tennis partners, business partners, but not actual friends. It took only about a week until Kaleigh met Brett in health center one morning, and a few hours until they four of them were on Connor's terrace having cocktails and cucumber sandwiches. Fast forward through a few galas, banquets and club outings and we find our couples on Connor and Kaleigh's sailboat, heading for the remote Voss Islands. Linus was watching the 12 monitors at his station eagerly as he begged his sponsors off the island for some more funding. Back on the beach, Kate was busy contemplating who she loves more, hero Jack, or bad boy Sawyer. Growing angry, Linus sent one of him men to capture Jack as he headed into the forest. Kate's expression would soon grow graver. Night had fallen on the beach and Linus' henchmen hid behind large bamboo leaves waiting to hear Jack's footsteps draw nearer, waiting for Jack to come within their range. The tension was building and, inexplicably, Jack began to feel slight fear enter his mind "Honey, let's go, pack up your stuff, we're here!" yelled Connor. "Yes, dear," said Kaleigh in a monotone voice. She took off her headphones and closed her portable DVD player. "Wow Kaleigh, you really weren't kidding about this place, it's EXQUISITE! exclaimed Caroline. "Isn't it" said Kaleigh. Brett jumped off first, and reached out for Caroline's hand as she stepped down from the boat in her white sundress and straw hat. "Babe, I love it, it's going to be great," she whispered to Brett. Kaleigh was next. She held Brett's hand as he gazed into her brown eyes. For a moment, Brett felt as if he was drowning in those eyes, entrapped by her gaze. Kaleigh smiled, knowingly, and broke the gaze, freeing Brett. "Connor, I'm going to go show Caroline the spa, won't you check us in and get the keys" asked Kaleigh. "Definitely hun..."Connor said and he and Brett watched their wives walk down the beach. "Is she something, or is she SOMETHING!" said Connor with a smirk of satisfaction on his face. "Yeah she's gorgeous Con," replied Brett. "Oh don't get me wrong Brett, Caroline's a looker too, but there's just

Future Worlds Essay Example for Free

Future Worlds Essay I think future worlds will change earth entirely; there will probably be teleports and other, various new machinery that could revolutionize the way humans live and survive. Working may be a thing of the past if Robots start taking shape. Various kind of medical advancements might change how long we can live for; eternity might be possible in years down the track, that would make earth very crowded and we humans possibly would have to move planet and inhabit another land and environment, this could also make us evolve and we might need skills like wings or gills to help us survive the new living conditions. Other forms of life might be on other planets and cross breeding between ‘alien’ and ‘human’ might have an effect on the physical and mental changes of humans. If life down the track ends up like how it is stereotyped, then hover cars and flying cars might be the way we transport. Food might also be different, due to the fact that we are killing off animals as a source of meat. Plant life might also die off due to those same reasons. Another possible outcome in the future is the ice caps could melt, causing humans to become water bound, this could either wipe us out, or we could maybe adapt to these changes and change the way we can survive the new prominent element. War could also be another way the world is changed, as much is it is a horrible thing, it could help out thinning the numbers of humans populating earth. War could also make people in general poorer, which might stop the rapid growth in technology. After a war, lots of jobs would become available to repair, make or farm new things to help things improve and to regenerate growth in the world. The downside to wars is, smaller countries could be over run, many people die, families lose loved ones and people are forced to live with such vivid memories while fighting. The way the world is, really does depend on how us humans can maintain earth’s natural resources and how much the technological advancements can improves or hinder the way the world develops. Technological advancement to nuclear warfare could put an end to the world all together, Australia alone has 23% of the world nuclear power, if sold to the wrong people, the world could be gone or heavy mutation could occur, changing life form. A future world, at the moment is really just your imagination, there is very little knowledge of what the world will do, is there really a god? Will there be an Ice age? No one can really know for sure just yet, it is all an assumption and what you think in your own head.

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe

Is there an objective standard of taste? Essay -- Art, Aesthetic Princi

In Aesthetics, it is thought that in order to show that a work of art is truly great, it is required that an assessment of aesthetic value must be made (Graham, 2001). Therefore, it can be seen as important that such criteria of can be defined in order to make such an assessment. In this essay, I shall argue that it is not possible for there to be an objective standard of taste that can be defined through a set of binding aesthetic principles that can be used to judge value of artistic works. Rather, than an objective standard of taste can exist without aesthetic rules or principles. This shall be done by first examining Hume’s seminal work ‘Of the standard of taste’ (Hume, SOT). Firstly Hume’s idea of ‘agreeableness’ of a work art shall be addressed, and how the idea of the test of time can result in unanimity of in aesthetic judgement as evidence that there can be an objective standard for aesthetic judgement. This shall be confirmed by examining Hume’s non-cognitivist account of aesthetic judgement proposing that no properties of objects can make them viable candidates for aesthetic evaluation, only the immediate and spontaneous reactions that they can evoke from us can. After this has been established it will then be shown that due to the shared nature of the human species, such aesthetic sentiments can display reasonable uniformity. Although it will have already been established that a uniformity of taste exists, it will be discussed how aesthetic sentiments can be improved by a sound understanding of what is being appreciated, as it is possible for some aesthetic judgments to be better than others, through aesthetic judgment o f individuals that Hume regards as being good critics, who have well-tuned aesthetic sensibilit... ... (1963) The abbreviations and texts cited above are as follows: [T] A Treatise of Human Nature, edited by L. A. Selby-Bigge, 2nd ed. revised by P.H. Nidditch, Oxford: Clarendon Press, (1975) [SOT] â€Å"Of the Standard of Taste,† in, The Philosophical Works of David Hume, edited by T. H. Green and T. H. Grose. 4 volumes, London: Longman, Green, 1874-75. [Page references above to individual essays are to volume 3 of this edition.] Web Articles used Zangwill, Nick, "Aesthetic Judgment", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2006 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), URL = . Gracyk, Ted, "Hume's Aesthetics", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2006 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), forthcoming URL = .

Management and Workbook Process Essay

As a leading pioneer in outdoor retailing and a company at the forefront of the movement for environmental sustainability, we write this letter in response to your request to evaluate your current Workbook Process and appraise the advantages as well as the drawbacks to the system. We are not in favour of the current Workbook Process for reasons that we will list for you. We feel that a company with such a reputation as Patagonia, Inc., needs to adopt a less sophisticated but progressive system. MAIN FINDINGS With the research we carried out it was very clear and apparent to us that the Workbook Process was ineffective. However, it did open up communication among employees, and it also encouraged employees to share their ideas with some upper level management. We do feel that the process can be improved upon. OVERVIEW OF THE WORKBOOK PROCESS The Patagonia Workbook Process in our view was designed to make information about the company’s planning, budgeting and quality improvement flow more fluently amongst all the employees. The Process was also designed to encourage the employees to take a more active role in the company’s planning, operating review and decision making process. We will start our analysis by critiquing and listing what we feel are major concerns of the workbook process. CONCERNS OF THE WORKBOOK PROCESS * The Process of sharing information could weaken the managers’ powerbase, because selective disclosure of information can be used to control and to manipulate employees to do their work. * Expensive system because training is required for the employees to learn and to understand the system. In addition, training is time consuming. * The poor deliverance of financial information, due to the fact that some employees did not want to participate in the Process. * The one to two months lag behind of paperwork. Thus information was never relevant for that specific time period. * Large proportion of employees refused to engage in the Process because they found it tedious. * The plan was not accepted by all levels of management. * The Workbook Process focuses mainly on planning in advance for the longer term rather than on a day by day basis. * The Workbook Process had difficulty in judging environment, quality and distribution objectives, which are crucial success factors for Patago nia, Inc. * The Workbook Process is very complex and time consuming. The level of planning and the enormous amount of meetings needed to discuss company plans leaves very little time for constructive work to be done. * The Process could be limiting in the sense that it does not promote innovations; if anything it encourages people to just stick to a set plan and nothing else. * The profit sharing plan that was introduced was not based on merit; it was just allocated in equal percentages of the base salary. On the contrary, the workbook process also has some benefits. Although, the concerns outweigh the benefits, it is for your benefit and to give you a better perspective of the Process. BENEFITS OF THE WORKBOOK PROCESS * The Workbook Process has been significantly embraced amongst the employees at Patagonia, Inc. * A significant amount of the employees feel that the Process is worthwhile and that it has given everyone an opportunity to bond; and also optimized better solutions for the company. * The Workbook Process being a much longer term strategy can detect problems or issues before they arise, which is a more proactive approach, rather than waiting for an issue to arise before it gets attended to. * The Workbook Process gave a chance for employees at the top of the hierarchy a better understanding of what lower ranked employees where up to, therefore it created an atmosphere whereby everyone was interested in what was happening within the company. EVALUATION On the basis of our evaluation, we would like to recommend that Patagonia, Inc. discontinues with the Workbook Process. We are of the view that the Process has served its intended purpose. The Process has worked in the sense that it has educated the employees on how the company operates and how their jobs interface with each other. A control system is applied to ensure that an organization strategy is implemented which is not the case with the Workbook Process. The Workbook Process focuses on long term rather than looking at each scenario as it arises. In looking back at the time dedicated to achieving company objectives is lacking, which we feel is a key component of the future success of the company. A value driver is an objective which can indicate future success. An example would include product design, quality and design, quality and customer service, which are all qualities that Patagonia, Inc. values. MAIN RECOMENDATIONS AND MODIFICATION Our recommended replacement for the Workbook Process is a Balanced Scorecard. A Balanced Scorecard is a less sophisticated and more grounded evaluation method. A Balanced Scorecard not only focuses on financial but also non-financial contributors to the success of the company. Management can set objectives that involve different areas of the business. For example the production and distribution could qualify as efficiency objectives, research and development would focus on innovations, and the human resources would look after the quality of life for the employees. We are of a strong view that these aspects are key elements to the success of the company. The Balanced Scorecard will not guarantee success for Patagonia, Inc. but, we see it as a step in the right direction. The Balanced Scorecard does have some drawbacks as well as advantages. The drawbacks are, a Balanced Scorecard can add a new type of reporting without necessarily improving quality or financial numbers; it could be viewed as a non-value adding report method and a distraction for achieving actual goals. One more disadvantage is that Balanced Scorecard goals are easy to reach but hard to quantify. The advantages of the Balance Scorecard are that, it caters for employees who are both financially and non-financially literate, a Balanced Scorecard is less technical and easier to understand, and the last advantage is that the Balanced Scorecard is less time consuming and will allow workers to focus more on their real tasks. CONCLUSION In concluding, we feel that the time and effort required to keep the Workbook Process operational are too costly. The staff within the organization are only partially committed, which in our view is causing complications with the success of the Workbook Process. The level of training required is exhaustive. The employees who are not financially literate regardless of how much training they receive might never fully grasp the concepts of the Workbook Process. When an organization focuses all its efforts on financial results, other tasks that cannot be measured objectively are neglected. We hope that you will take all of our advice and recommendations into consideration and, we wish you and Patagonia, Inc. all the success in your future endeavours.

Macroeconomic Stabilisation Theory and Policy

The level of economic stability in any economy depends on both macro and microeconomic variables. Within the scope of the macroeconomic tools various, markets are deemed to be influential. These include the money market, the goods/commodity market, the labour market, capital and also foreign market. For stabilisation purpose, all the markets should be at equilibrium both in the supply and demand sides. The labour market remains a fundamental market that models the nature and status  Ã‚   of economic stability. Labour market is the general portfolio within the market which figures the broad scope of the demand and the supply of labour. Within the economy, labour interacts with the firms to provide the relevant implication to each other. Labour within the economy is provided by the households. It is paid in terms of wages and other remunerations. Either, the firms produces consumption goods and also services for use by the household. Consequently, stability in the labour market provides a stake in defining the levels of economic functionality. This is basically through shaping the nature and scope of unemployment which is a macroeconomic variable. Unemployment is also determined by the existing levels of equilibrium between labour demand and supply. Economically, the aggregate labour market is cleared at the economic disposition when the level of labour demand and supply are deemed equal.   Broadly, the aspect of the demand and the supply of labour for such market clearing are defined in terms of the market level of wages. Wage is the price levied for the supply and demand of labour. From the two sides, the household is deemed to be the supplying component of the labour service while the firms are the demand function of labour. The aspect of market clearing therefore tries to establish the most functional level of wage rate which makes both the demand and supply of labour equal within the labour market. Therefore, the household and firms seldom rely on the levels of the market wage rate as benchmarks for support with which the labour substitution can be made. (Ron, Philip, 2002, p.90) The basic concept is however the determination of the most adequate levels of market wage rates which creates market clearing. For stability purpose, the level of labour supply and labour demand should always be at equilibrium. This wage rate is called market clearing wage   rate which is used by the hidden   hand of the market for clearing   the excess levels and also deficits in the demand and supply of labour. Market clearing in labour market is described by the concept of the basic economic law of the labour demand and supply.   This law states that, with all other factors being at a constant, the increase in wage rate leads to an increase in labour supply by the household in the short run. However, a decrease in wage rate brings a  Ã‚   disincentive for labour supply by the household which ultimately leads to lower levels of labour supply. The feasibility in the levels of labour supply and demand is fundamental in relating the existing relationship between employment and unemployment as a key factor in defining the stability scope of the economy. A low level of unemployment is important in describing the level with which the economy stabilises. Generally, the market clearing intercept in the labour market is provided by the equilibrium functionality between the labour supply and the demand. This is to mean that, the exact level of labour force supplied by the household is exactly equal with what is needed by the firms   within the economy. The functional aspect of wages determines the basic scope with which efficiency can be explained in the labour market. The basic levels of inequality between the supply and demand of such labour is what brings the idea of inefficiencies allied to unemployment. (Michael, 2002, p. 103) Economically in the commodity market, firms are the suppliers of services and goods to the household (consumers). However, in the labour market, these firms seldom becomes the consumers of the labour force. The need for labour force by the firms is for   making various   scope of products. The demand for labour in the different firm functions is dependent on the level of wages in the labour market. The clearing state for labour is determined by the related cost of the same which determines the related level of supply and demand. Consequently, the cost of labour in the market is what yields market wage rate. The level of supply and demand for labour is therefore a function of the wage rate. The desire by the firms in purchasing labour at the existing levels of market wage rates goes up to the point where both the wage rate and the marginal revenue product are equal. The marginal revenue product of labour would thus signify the level with which an additional unit of labour would generate to the firm’s revenue. Equilibrium levels in the labour market is what provides the market labour clearance. The equilibrium level of market labour is arrived  Ã‚   at when the aggregate levels of both demand and supply are equal. Generally, aggregate labour supply denotes the sum total of all the labour supplying units/ personnel in the market. Elsewhere, aggregate demand is what is captured by the sum total of all labour demand units by the firms in the market. For equilibrium, both the levels in supply and demand should equate one another. Equilibrium is denoted by the interception capacity of the labour demand and supply curves. (Gilles, 2000, p.87) The clearing tool in the labour market is operational within two scopes. The market could be unrestricted where the supply and demand levels are freely volatile to be determined by the basic circumstances in the market. Elsewhere, the market could be restricted to certain level of wage rate which therefore helps to control the wage rate from going below or above the specific levels of wage rate. The unrestricted market function implies that the level of market wage rate is determined by the scope of labour supply and labour demand. This is through the use of the basic law of demand and supply of labour by household and firms. When the wage rate is high, the level of labour supply is also high. However, when the wage rate is low, the supply of the wages is also low. With wages being restricted, the labour supply and demand is restricted by both wage ceilings and wage floors. Wage ceiling implies the highest level of wages which should not be surpassed above (it is made to protect the firms from   exploitation by the labour suppliers). Elsewhere, price floor is the lowest level of wage rate which should not be paid below it.   This is made to protect the labour suppliers from the basic exploitation by the firms through very low wage set up. The stability in the labour market plays an important role in the general commodity market, where the supply and demand for goods is depended on the price level within the market. (Andres, 1988, p.78) Generally, the level of consumption (both goods and services within the market is determined by the level of the income held by the households). Ideally, the same income is gotten through the sale of their labour services to the firms. Either, the supply of such goods and services by the firms is determined by many factors   which include the level   of labour   which is a basic   factor of production. Consequently, equilibrium in the labour market is a passive tool for providing   support   for a strongly functional   commodity market.   Through the sale of their labour services, the households get money which they use in purchasing their consumption requirements from the firms. Elsewhere, firms use the labour force from the workers to produce goods and services for use by the households. Therefore, the equilibrium state between the aggregate labour demand and aggregate labour supply is arrived at, at the point of intersection between both curves. Such an intersection point is important in claiming the level of the equilibrium level of wage rate as well as determining the level of economic state of employment. Within the competitive market   (unrestricted), the profitability level of the firms is determined by the level with which such firms hires labour until it reaches the level of equality between marginal cost of labour and marginal revenue product   of labour . (Ben, 1998, p.46) Conventionally therefore, market   clearing in the labour   markets is achieved by the   condition when   the level   of quantity demanded is equal to the quantity supplied. This is important in safeguarding against any form of shortages or even surplus quantities in the market. The stability status of the labour market provides an adequate status for safeguarding the level and implication of the rates of unemployment   in the economy. Generally, macroeconomic conception dictates that high labour supply than its demand produces labour surplus in the labour market. This is a basic indication towards a higher rate of unemployment within the economy. Elsewhere, high demand for labour than its supply causes labour deficits. This substantially causes an increasingly high level of unemployment. Altogether, a stable state between both labour demand and   supply   remains   fundamental   indication   in furnishing   the basic threshold   that determines   the scope of   unemployment . As a broad   macroeconomic variable, the speculation towards   reducing   the general   impact   in unemployment also captures stability   in other operating p[parameters between   the labour market. Generally therefore, stability in the   labour market provides   a ground work condition for its market clearing where the general demand supply are adequately at equilibrium. As a rule for such market clearing its fundamentals are basically projected by the capacity with which the market demand and supply of labour   would fundamentally yield substantially a stable position which limits the impacts of a high levels   of unemployment in the market. (Frank, 2006, pp.84) The support for market clearing in labour   market is expanded by the   Keynesian neoclassical model on a labour . He proposed that equality between aggregate supply and aggregate demand for labour would act to provide a groundwork favourable environment towards low states of unemployment. At the equilibrium level is the equilibrium amount of wage rate which helps to provide a high standard for rationality in reducing the level of unemployment. The equilibrium level of wage rate acts as a supportive tool for the implementation protocol where the level of supply is deemed rationally compatible with the theoretical wage levels. Elsewhere, the levels of demand would also be equal to the level of wages. As a rule therefore, the level of equilibrium within the labour market plays a fundamental attribute in a rationalising for a stable state of commodity market. (Frank, 2006, pp.98)   Also, since the labour market is one of the economic markets, its stability also provides a condition for a   strong defence towards a stable   state   of economy   where labour deficits   and surpluses would not be available hence a strong sense in the economic stability. Generally therefore, the basic concept behind labour market clearing is the basic threshold with which the level of quantities of labour supplied is equal with what is demanded. This provides a substantial position for strengthening the level of economic stability within the general economy. As an important macroeconomic tool, a stable state of employment within the economy is provided by the degree of compatibility between the labour market. High levels of unemployment cause instability in other facets of economic growth where low levels of consumption is deemed the basic implication of high unemployment. Therefore, great importance should be attached in the state of the relationship between the demand and supply of labour for a greater scope of economic functionality. Bibliography Andres, D. (1988) Real Wages and Employment: Keynes, Monetarism, and the Labor Market. London, Routledge, pp.78 Ben, F. (1998) Labor Market Theory: A Constructive Reassessment. London, Routledge,pp.46 Frank, M. (2006) Towards Labor Market Liberalisation. London Routledge, pp. 84,98 Gilles, S. (2000) The Political Economy of Labor Market Institutions. Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp.87 Michael, H. (2002) Labor Market Planning Revisited. Palgrave, Macmillan, pp.103 Ron, M & Philip, M. (2002) Geographies of Labor Market Inequality. London,

Theatre in Changing Society essays

Theatre in Changing Society essays Theatre will always survive in our changing society. It provides us with a mirror of the society within which we live, and where conflicts we experience are acted out on stage before us. It provides us with characters with which we identify with. The audience observes the emotions and actions as they happen and share the experience with the characters in real time. The survival of theatre lies in the very nature of humankind: its inner voyeuristic drive. The desire to watch other people dealing with their conflicts and fates challenges as well as reinforces values and the morality of society. The theatre provides an exciting opportunity to watch stories and situations as if they were real life, showing us the truth of our nature. For as long as humankind exists, theatre will always take on an important function within its cultures. Through theatre, a culture expresses itself, reflects its society, and displays its individuality. It invites people to experience other cultures. Nevertheless, the question at hand is whether theatre will have a role in the society of the future, where cinema, digital television, and computers will continue to expand and grow. The answer to this question is yes. Heading into the 21st century, theatre will only be a fraction in a solid media industry. However, despite all the excitement technology brings with it, they will never replace theatre because it has something that can not be recreated or offered anywhere else. The cinema and its larger than life world appeals as an affordable alternative. Digital television provides digital interaction between the viewer and the producer. Theatre on the other hand, and its contents may take on a larger dimension, but we receive it directly in flesh and blood one to one. The magical atmosphere between an actor and spectator who are constantly aware of each other and the theatres level of engagement is fundamentally more human and ...

(Global System for Mobile Communications Essays

(Global System for Mobile Communications Essays (Global System for Mobile Communications Essay (Global System for Mobile Communications Essay GSM Architecture of the GSM System GSM-elements interfaces System Architecture: Radio Subsystem Mobile Station (MS) Mobile Station (MS) Block Diagram of BTS with TRX Block Diagram of BTS Contd. Transmitter/Receiver Module – The TRX consists of a low-frequency part for digital signal processing and a high-frequency part for GMSK modulation and demodulation. The operations and maintenance (OM) module – connected directly to the BSC by means of a specifically assigned OM channel. That allows the OM module to process the commands from the BSC or the MSC directly into the BTS and to report the results – OM module provides a human-machine interface (HMI), which allows for local control of the BTS. BTS BSC Block Diagram of BSC BSC Contd†¦. Terminal Control Elements (TCEs) – Abis-Interface Terminal Control Elements Abis-TCEs are to set up LAPD connections toward the BTS peers, the transfer of signaling data, and last- but not lea st- the transparent transfer of payload. – A-Interface Terminal Control Elements The connection of a BSC to the MSC is established via the A-TCEs. A-TCEs is setting up and operating the SS7/SCCP connection toward the MSC. BSC Contd†¦. Database (DB) – maintenance status of the whole BSS, the quality of the radio resources and terrestrial resources, and so on are dynamically administrated – BSC database contains the complete BTS operations software for all attached BTSs and all BSS specific information,such as assigned frequencies. BSC Contd†¦. Central Module – One of the major tasks of the BSC is to decide when a handover should take place. The BSC may decide on intra-BTS handover and intraBSC handover without needing the MSC. In contrast, for all BSC external handovers, the BSC needs to involve the MSC. – Handover decision and power control are main tasks of the central module. Transcoding Rate and Adaptation Unit (TRAU) The task of the TRAU is to compress or decompress speech between the MS and the TRAU. – called regular pulse excitation–long term prediction (RPE-LTP) It is able to compress speech from 64 Kbps to 16 Kbps – Fullrate channel (net bit rate with fullrate is 13 Kbps) and to 8 Kbps in the case of a halfrate channel (net bit rate with halfrate is 6. Kbps) Possible Sites for TRAU System Architecture: Network and Switching Subsystem Home Location Register (HLR) Home Location Register manages the mobile subscribers database which stores – subscriber information – part of the mobile location information – International Mobile subscriber Identity – Mobile station ISDN Number It is the subscriber number commonly used – VLR address Vis itor Location Register (VLR) Dynamically stores subscriber information, needed to handle incoming/outgoing calls, which includes, – Mobile Station Roaming Number When a roaming mobile enters an MSC area. This MSC warns the associated VLR of this situation; the mobile enters a registration procedure through which it is assigned a mobile subscriber roaming number (MSRN) – Temporary Mobile Subscriber Identity, if applicable – The location area in which the mobile has been registered – Data related to supplementary service parameters MSC VLR MSC G-MSC The NSS hierarchy The NSS AUC/EIR Authentication Center(s) (AUC) – Providing the authentication key used for authorizing the subscriber access to the associated GSM PLMN. Equipment Identity Register(s) (EIR) – Handling Mobile Station Equipment Identity Equipment Identity Register(s) (EIR) White list: contains all the approved types of mobile stations Black list: contains those IMEIs known to be stolen or to be barred for technical reasons Gray list: allows tracing of the related mobile stations Numbering Arrangement in GSM International Mobile Subscriber Identification number (IMSI) It identifies a unique international universal number of a mobile subscriber, which consists of MCC+MNC+MSIN. ) MCC: country code, 460 2)MNC: network code, 00 or 01 3)MSIN: subscriber identification, H1H2H3H4 9XXXXXX, H1H2H3H4: subscriber registering place H1H2: assigned by the PT Administrative Bureau (operator )to different provinces, to each province H3H4: assigned by each province/city the IMSI of user will be written into the SIM card by specific device and software and be stored into the HLR with other user information. Numbering Arrangement in GSM Mobile Subscriber ISDN Number(MSISDN) It is the subscriber number commonly used. China uses the TDMA independent numbering plan: CC+NDC+ H1H2H3H4 +ABC CC: country code, 86 NDC: network code, 135- 139, 130 H1H2H3H4: HLR identification code ABCD: mobile subscriber number inside each HLR Numbering Arrangement in GSM International Mobile Equipment Identification code (IMEI) It will uniquely identify a mobile station. It is a decimal number of 15 digits. Its structure is: TAC+FAC+SNR+SP TAC=model ratification code, 6 digits FAC=factory assembling code, 2 digits SNR=sequence code, 6 digits SP=reserved, 1 digit Numbering Arrangement in GSM Mobile Subscriber Roaming Number (MSRN) The MSRN is temporarily distributed to the subscriber by the VLR according to the request by the HLR when this subscriber is called. The MSRN is released and can be assigned to other subscriber later. CC + NDC + 00 + M1M2M3 + ABC CC: country code, 86 NDC: mobile network code, 135- 139, 130 M1M2: same as the H2H3 of MSISDN ABC: 000 999 Numbering Arrangement in GSM Temporarily Mobile Subscriber Identification Number (TMSI) To insure the IMSI security, the VLR will assign an unique TMSI number for the accessed subscriber. It is used locally only and is a 4 GSM Mapping Example (DL) GSM Mapping Example (UL) Air Interface Protocols Air Interface Protocols Air Interface Protocols Block diagram of the base scenarios

Module 3 Assessing a Research Study Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Module 3 Assessing a Research Study - Term Paper Example The research article uses materials that have been written, discussing the progress that has been made in the medical or healthcare sector, because of the use of EMR services and software, as a way of addressing the research question. Thus, the use of literature review is used to pursue and underscore the logical relationship between the dependent variable (return on investment analysis [ROI]) and independent variable (the emergence and use of EMR technology). 2. The sample size comprises healthcare organizations that deal in endocrinology, general surgery, orthopedics, cardiology, nephrology, podiatry, ophthalmology, urology, occupational medicine, dermatology, allergy and immunology, family practice and gastroenterology. 5. The article clearly illustrates how the returns on investments (ROI) have progressed before and after the advent or use of EMR services (reliability). This includes the presentation of actual figures, and percentages of increased productivity (validity). Two-way Analysis of Variance: it is clear that in the research, statistical data have been used to describe the manner in which a given categorical and independent variable affects different dependent variables. Indeed, the researcher, Dr. Sindhwani makes conclusion to the effect that the advent or use of EMR technology has radically increased all the aforementioned and tested elements of ROI in healthcare / medical institutions. Dr. Sindhwani as the researcher explores (remotely) the control of extraneous variables by acknowledging the place of other relatable technologies such as Smart-phones, their preponderance and an increased knack for accurate coding as factors that will spur onwards, EMR’s returns on investments. In the study, Dr. Sindhwani finds out that the use of EMR has significantly increased the tested elements of returns on investment (ROI). Particularly, Dr. Sindhwani is categorical that charting increased from 0.5 to 1 (50%

Why Selfies Do More Harm Than Good Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Why Selfies Do More Harm Than Good - Essay Example Lincoln`s Lost Speech. This is an important artifact which is followed only or mostly by Americans. This speech was addressed by Abraham Lincoln in a small building in Bloomington. This speech holds immense importance in the history of America as it laid the foundation of modern America. Not only that, but it established the Republication Party. In modern day, only traces of the speech are known. What this artifact explains is that some artifacts fail to travel to other countries due to a lack of interest. People from other countries will not feel patriotic towards this artifact as they serve and live in another country. Artifacts are a way of creating bridges between two countries. People of different countries follow and enjoy a mutual thing. In this way, the connection is made. People get to express their thoughts across the people of the other country. (Selfiesatfunerals.tumblr.com) Selfies. The major artifact of today. This trend gained popularity in many countries. Not only tee nagers and kids, but adults also enjoy taking `selfies.` Selfies have been the headlines of many news channels. Like any other item, selfies also have certain pros and cons. Yes, they prove to be fun, but they are also met with criticism. A collection of memories is what a lot of people treasure. But in the process of collecting memories, do we fail to be a part of them? This is the question which has been pondered over. Selfies also create privacy risks. By posting them on our social media accounts we are not the only ones who own it.